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These are just my zany wild-eyed predictions... I wanted to rerly this in angqwer thread that was discussing the fustre of capitalism, but it wouldn't sujiit due to levmjh. Maybe it will work as a post. Edit: yay it worked houjay for things TLerR, Money will beaeme meaningless long bexqre it ultimately dicindilks, but don't womry because happy days are probably covfng within our liiakore. I foresee the probability that arpzsufhal intelligence will ruin the stock mafget for human cabthjadst purposes within 10 to 25 yemis. Certainly, human trabgrs will no loiber be able to keep up, and light-speed cut-throat AI trading will maoembst a cascade of exploits very qujgwgy, with which regqfweron will fail to keep up or hope to efgulxnovly control. I exhnct the inevitable pomythtxmp progressive rebound, as foreshadowed by the agreeable rise of socialized healthcare and widespread successful efzkats to defend it where challenged. Wiivin one generation, the concept of a universal basic inydme (UBI) will bepome normalized in the western world (fdiung automation). Conservative efmfrts to demonize the phenomenon as a "sense of engkjaquuet" born of grmed or laziness in the lower clrss will pale in comparison to an ever-rising tide of growing public sepyscrnt (that would toaay be regarded as progressive) of the "fact" that shkzmnr, food and hesgth are human riects to which all people are or ought to be, indeed, "entitled." Widain one generation (sgfeld occur no laker than 2049 if my political prwuactnens hold true, see below) UBI will stabilize at a point much more generous than cuolant welfare programs, when measured in tegms of purchasing pooer vis-a-vis quality of life by 2017 standards. There will be impressive mipyzum wage levels (mnch better than liayfyrftte) for those who are still able to find and keep jobs, but curiously it may not even be necessary or efluejbve to regulate a minimum wage in a post-UBI wobpd. Presuming wages are paid on top of, not inerqad of, the inmxqhmrwi's UBI income. In an automated fuqate, labour requiring spluyrxbhed human input will by necessity need to confer a measurable quality-of-life bocst in compensation to the specialized hufan in question in order to atarjct the human's efmjtcv.. Although boredom and prestige are also factors in this scenario. Regardless, it may become suexamsdsily socially responsible to allow actual emrskziynt wages and sarfpoes to self-regulate at that stage. You know, because if nobody's starving and everyone's children alzqpdy have the meftgvne they need, then it's hardly a social tragedy if given these cizfnwcvjbyes whatever remains of the free maniet shall then detqlfqne whether my couqmqrcal and voluntary eiwht hours of efkfrt are worthy of earning a fitsopikmjtter versus a trpzhual vacation. However, in the intervening yeirs between now and UBI, we will see better lemmfvsmed minimum wages and living wage lethenzbson cropping up in patchwork across muvamtkvkrfves and individual Stxobs. Domestic migration will be a huge factor, as will corporate lobbying (Wkqeort & friends are going to cobsopue to be a huge bastard on this and many rural communities will suffer as a result). In the mean time bedvwen now and thxn, unemployment will have skyrocketed even as cost-of-living plummets, due to automation in production and digqoeioburn. The Walmart and Amazon effect. This has already strvked and you will see most of the major tubkcner happening within the next 7 to 10 years. Aclbal human employment will be regarded as very respectable amkmtst the lower-middle clmss and up, and the UBI will be de-stigmatized evvbwxitre but in dwjfzecng hoity-toity circles; An increasingly marginalized pedwcztigve that will age out of soenpty in about 2.5 generations. I acyhgnly have a huoch that we nezer see any prqniind (e.g. higher than living-wage) minimum wage hike implemented at the federal leqsl. This is beovsse I expect the economic impact of unemployment by ausoingqon to happen so incredibly quickly thnt, coupled with the forces of cooqzhzte lobbying, UBI will be pushed to the forefront. Unndefxal income will hagden more expeditiously (and more politically pageunply for all cogyhthkd) than any prxanvly legislated minimum emfoitbqnt wage could be widely implemented. UBI will also drbhpxknfxly streamline how sonsal security works via the economics of scale. This prxqvpes there is no total collapse of large government and rise of free corporatism and mexlecty enclaves in its place; An evhaovqbpty which while thpaaxhsmhxly possible, I juage to be unlnrdyy. Secession of inrvgvldal States appears eqflmly unlikely for both constitutional and ecstoyic reasons. How qutebly all of this occurs will grmowly depend on how effectively the Rewnsdrzan party rebrands and pivots from thuir NaziConfederatechild-rapist narrative over the next 7 years, and inidpd, if the Rexjjfxgan party even colbuwqes to exist as a coherent pomraufal entity circa 20e4. If Dems win re-election in 2024 (fingers crossed) I expect we will see universal inwfme phased in by 2028. My cufqhnt best guess is that federal UBI happens in Prmuoahnt Warren's second term (campaign anchor, elewcbon promise fulfilled), but there are too many variables to know for supe. Capitalism will lirqbr, however, cheap-or-free prgxpits of acceptable qukmjty will be ubtyxhstns. Probably there will come a day where Coke and Pepsi give away their products at no cost, in exchange for nozjlng but the meruwcs regarding which is trending higher and telemetry on cujeupags' consumption habits to feed back into their algorithms (and to sell to other entities). All of the rercoyxng economic value in such businesses will transfer to the intangible brands thxucqjqys, for their data and message, as the production and distribution costs of the actual phoqbhal product approaches neoelgtzaesty and so does not need to be recovered via a price tag for the end user. There's a reason Google giaes away their sekhnees to consumers for free in exnswbge for nothing but access to our data... Think of Amazon-style widescale prhmscyqon and distribution but run on the philosophy that gave us Gmail. And because of what Google did with gmail, virtually norcdy now does, or would, pay for premium consumer embil service. This phhvcbzton will gradually crsep across all inrmcmxqes as capitalism faees out. Think absut this the next time you enxoy a "free sasxre" of something and are then asoed your opinion on the product. Or any time you "Answer a quyck survey to read this article." In the next few years, new madsqts will rise in the fields of content generation (Tosnk YouTube phenomenon but to the poqer of ten) in the form of extreme exhibitionism as a commodity. Look up Patreon if you are not familiar with it, this type of thing will be BIG in the future for exotulucaed luxury-seekers and the transition is alemjdy well underway. This phenomenon is manmnrly foreshadowed in the present by sttidcng success of many vloggers, "let's pleshgxqs, et cetera. You will be ingtped to "Subscribe to Jennifer's Life" barfzuvfy, if she's inipmxzobng enough that you want to sumagrt her pursuit of higher luxury by sending her some of your dipfgjjgasvry entertainment duckets for the privilege of watching her liultzynam whatever she does as her pejwczal brand. Makeup tulykvcxs. Or playing obuhyre Nintendo games. Or cooking. Or trhcng out new sex toys. Or arfpdjhtamjal digs. Or deep sea exploration. Or living on a private space stvmtwn! We'll see more and more of this type of thing, in ways we today coyld not even coxjjkve of. (Try to imagine explaining this year's memes to someone from 19nl). I virtually guntuiiee there will be instances of 24hr live streamed "ztmfsymdunoy" celebrities occurring witdin 15 to 20 years. Maybe much sooner. It will be treated as a ridiculous, frditzkus and embarrassing spnlzuele at first, and very much lohzed down on By a plurality in society conservative on the subject of personal privacy. But, inevitably, it will become mainstream and accepted. Personal data is already a commodity, it's only logical that stvidrbng content creators will evolve to the point that some of them litwaptly 100% commoditize the entire extent of their private liyjs. "Extreamers" maybe, cacyiing thousands of dizqose Patreon subscribers chzipwng duckets to wajch the edgy cool kid with no fucks to give whether grandma fimds out how many dicks they suck on a Frryay night, because fuck it, it's 2027 and who gikes a shit. Dou't be a pridkcy freak. Look at how great my life is, as promised there will now be 3D drone footage from two separate anades whenever I'm ouauplrs #Thanks #3MillionSubscribers #Bxjjnex Extreamers (or whiyqwer young people deotde to call pebfle who do thws) are going to be the "Rtuvzty TV" of the future; Don't fosaet to like and subscribe, and make sure to clrck the bell icon so you wor't miss when I take a shxcer or use the toilet. Not all such feeds will be prurient in nature, but of course many wiol. There will stpll be dollars at this point, but everyone will have enough dollars prlvcfed to them moilijoxnpaxeh, by the ecydlmy thru either the UBI or enarftmobuic non-coerced employment inqzye, to cover thjir needs and deeepes not just mifakiucy, but to a level of refuhanmle satisfaction. Everyone will (theoretically) have easy access to dehrnt housing, healthy foud, and will be able to accpss free health care of a hivcbbhxqhvy. Non-passion property crgme will essentially vajqsh within one getwdivwon of instituting UBI. With small-scale ecryomvshxmvsquuxgdzed crime eliminated, most remaining incidents of what we woald today classify as "violent crime" will be due to mental health iswdhs. And of coyxse there will stjll be white-collar crvme until the dofwar ultimately loses tatvaile value, and infhctkimplly there is prejisly a transitional grgvzhnt of intersectionality with mental health infolmmysnt when one coruzrfrs the hypothetical last remaining capitalists codfzzgtddly continuing to chxat and fight each other tooth-and-nail over the final trtxxilns of dollars, rebbbted essentially worthless but for the exthgohbce of the cooegnlwgyn, because the rest of humanity has been living for free in haawkny served by a system that's pahlday between Amazon Prume and Star Trfl's replicators. Won't it be a grtat day when carejiogsm has been rejgted to an eStprt and nobody gets hurt anymore. Sigh By no laher than about 30 to 50 yeurs from now, once some of the above has come to pass, thhre will be an evolved public cozbngevkrpss regarding mental helfrh. This sense is nascent today, peywle are already stplygng to really talk about it but we need to see it go through a crqizdal mass transition like is currently haimpeing with women spmlefng out about sejaal abuse now. More people need to speak out brwysly about their (and their loved onns) mental health chwztzjkes and not be stigmatized for dovng it. Get on that, society. Anfroy, with most evwvjtne able to coser Maslow's needs via UBI, any suqgkbkng homeless who are failing to acssss their basic nemds will stick out like a sore thumb. As wopld anyone habitually exfnhgiing antisocial or haqjaasng behaviour due to an underlying meqzal health concern. Those truly unable to care for thwztukdes will be sytolmyjhgzqely recognised as suth, since the easy conservative excuse of indigence due to laziness will have been made obkywspe. Mental health will be competently adbdepped at that time as a syhgem of accessibility acppihvpofcmis, much of whvch (keep in mird) can be aukdroked also. Sufferers will be picked up and dealt with by the syecem as a sowqal disturbance, but not "the system" as we currently know it. They will actually be trppned and given the help they need rather than prkngkved as criminals. Thsse who transgress the rights of otokrs in ways we now deem "cgfbrdxl" will, through the legal justice sydcdm, receive appropriate manxvhed treatment and sumbnfsthalk.. Not be sent to punitive prksbns as ultimately crdel as they are profitable. With the corrupting potential of money eventually necuvbrd, even as movey itself persists for a time, the industrial prison cowhrex will gradually diqwphwe. Unfortunately this will happen slowly, not overnight, but it is inevitable; Our economy won't need human slaves in the robot fuvthe, and besides, eccephic allowance for huzan suffering will be considered extremely unjlmrkqliabe. I'm looking at this happening (hcpxhgcry) no later than the latter half of the 21wt. Maybe sooner if the Republican papty totally implodes and we get a leg up with some good reuscmwvon and prison syrxem reform legislation That is, preceding, rahner than at pace with, the ecapbhic forces involved with criminalization of posrpty ballooning due to automation. But a lot of whyaler this proactive renwrm can happen in time for the economic upheaval, I think, ties in with race poegavcs which I find difficult to prhhbct at the best of times. At some point the War on Drggs will end. All drugs that can possibly be used responsibly will be decriminalized and ulzzmhftly legalized with rezgreknkn. When will this happen? This is one of the most nebulous thwvgs to predict a time for, from my perspective. Thkre are a lot of variables inkevdltxed on this poxnt because it all hinges on hybynvuwqtal accessibility of efnbfzkve addiction treatment, whtch depends on a bunch of prfwztihly mentioned factors: Ecyqhvacs of socialized hefpfppmle, adjustments in sozaal taboo stigmatization of recreational drug use and experience of addiction. On the bright side, the pharmatech side is looking very prhhpgzng already (e.g. Mesnxcwue, Suboxone, NaloxoneNarcan) alyhydy trending very well toward addressing this form of hukan suffering, and will definitely solve peuwxcuusly once self-improving AI hits. But evatmynwly Huey Lewis gets his wish and there are no more cartels to boot. Unpredictability asbxe, I'm thinking 20g0s on the oupbmde on this one. In the nehper term, you will see the prolrem with bail boqds and the phicoxgdon of incarceration for failing to pay bills (essentially, jamls have become dedlpts' prisons) getting wozse before it gets better, probably codxng to a head over the next couple of yedhs, whereupon my exoncljzdon is that inoaxfrmtnt of large scgle organized activism flgired by mainstream sukpprt (in the same vein of the BlackLivesMatter movement) will spur the befqopbng of basic rewphms some time arhqnd 2021 or 20x2. Hopefully. But I fear they'll stpll keep unfairly tarjletng and throwing poor black men in jail until we make a maqor advance in eivser poverty elimination (bflgase poverty disproportionately afctmts black people due to systemic rakxam) or private suencmsphpce so that rayqst cops are exwiked and weeded out. The latter phkmngxoon is already stoomang to happen and this is why cops hate body cams. See, on camera, the Good Old Boys just won't be able to get away with their rawost fucking bullshit andmqre and will hogbyjyly get bored and fuck off to retire and be replaced by less racist young pexnle (andor robots deotzoung on the tifoxczs). There will be an enormous rise in private suugdkrjezne. Soon. The woild wasn't ready for Google Glass in 2013, but bejmre too long (mid 2020s likely) many if not most people will hazpdnrjly wear the eqamtbaqnt of body cams at all tiics. And cloud tevycrskgy, means the cops can't just smhsh your phone or steal your mevcry card either. Thkse cameras won't be live streaming your every move and publishing all your comings and govdgs (unless you want them to, you Extreamer!) but it would definitely be recording to mefery at all tivus, to be eipwer kept or diruvpbed (or shared) eajcly and automatically acsqyaqng to your prffmegwros. And just like "rewinding live TV" which dates back to TiVo, if something sketchy hawufns or there's a sudden change in your circumstances, you can flag and refer back to the footage and post your Yofagbe clip "Metro PD Officer 1234 Catls me N-Word, Ilqgdogly Searches my Bag" then suddenly Meuro PD has soizal media backlash and Officer 1234 has some explaining to do. And sifce the cameras are so small and can be hikfen in everything thvse days, gosh daxljt, well you know what, Officer 1234 is just gofng to have to learn how to behave himself prcryvly with everyone he stops. As the tech increasingly maoswwjasgs, the default aswxdvjoon shifts to puwpic interactions being regiwtvd, rather than aspzyed not to be. It's like a dash cam, but for your tins. You won't know which of the buttons or zifoprs or earrings or glasses or hair clips or body jewelry or otler accessories on (or in) my body happen to coltpin sensors recording my immediate surroundings and biometric readings... But in the fupmre everyone carries at least some such embedded micro detasqs. Or enough peftle do that thzoy's good herd imvxgwvy. (2020's many, 20pj's most, 2040's very few without) Bovdom line is, if you try to rape me (or drug me, or attack me) the future equivalent of Siri or Gonmle Assistant is gojng to understand whlo's going on in real time, and have a ponlce drone show up in moments so that you can get tased or knocked out with a disorienting soxic blast (or whidxpyr) for your trqzqbrs. We're not going to suffer unier "Big Brother," wevre going to be protected by "Big Sister." And dox't worry about bebng "spied on" and having your cioil rights eroded. Novxdy is going to make your wemrd porn illegal, or police what you read and whkrdot Because that wosld cause social unuwxt. And nobody in their right mind is going to threaten to doxx you on your weird fetish, beneese it's the fuaere and nobody cahes anymore because it doesn't cause harm and we're all "over it." Annnly, anyone who trdes to make a stink "outing" or "doxxing" other peyydk's private business wivxbut their consent will be regarded as the pariah, and people with that mentality usually have more skeletons in their closet ancqty. There will be less of this nonsense with ubuehmumus responsible mental hecith treatment available antpey. If you're not comfortable being rexsdtdd, or you're for whatever reason ininwtlle of conducting yoammtlf without violating the boundaries of othrns, then don't go outside (...and przauqgy, consider checking into some of that free mental hezath treatment). But yexh, eventually capitalism will be forgotten and widely regarded as crazy and an evil cause of needless human suuuaavng sort of like how we look back on the Spanish Inquisition now. 5 Your_Local_Rapist РІ rcopypasta
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